我国房地产市场的结构性变化与异常

(首都经济贸易大学 国际经济管理学院,北京 100070)

房地产市场调控; 时间序列分解; 结构性突变; 异常点识别

The Structural Changes and Anomalies of China's Real Estate Market
SU Zhi

(International School of Economics and Management, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China)

real estate market regulation; time series decomposition; structural breaks; identification of abnormal points

DOI: 10.15986/j.1008-7192.2021.01.006

备注

结合多种参数与非参数研究方法解析我国房地产市场的动态变化路径,发现2001-2020年住宅市场交易、生产、投资增速存在多个结构性断点与异常点。不同时期市场变量特征表明,市场结构性变化和异常波动的出现时间与一些重大事件冲击以及调控政策调整密切相关,说明我国房地产市场增长模式极易受到外部冲击而发生突变与异常,政府突然大力度的调整政策会使市场出现“政策反应过度或不适应”的异常暴涨或暴跌。2016年以后,房价、新开工面积、住宅投资稳健增长,房地产市场在受到新冠疫情冲击后迅速恢复并呈现出较强的增长态势,因此没有足够证据表明我国房地产市场进入全面下行趋势。
This paper analyzes the dynamic changes of China's real estate market by using some parametric and non-parametric research methods. It is found that there are multiple structural breakpoints and abnormal points in the growth of transactions, production and investment of housing market from 2001 to 2020. Market variable characteristics in different periods show that the market trend and abnormal fluctuations is closely coincident to some shocks of important events and the adjustment of regulatory policy. Accordingly, the growth model of the real estate market in China are highly vulnerable to external shocks, and also government's sudden and drastic policy adjustment is likely to arouse the boom or slump of market anomalies such as “overreaction or maladaptation to the policy”. After 2016, housing price, new start area, and real estate investment rise solidly. Following the shock of COVID-19, the real estate market quickly revives and displays a strong growth trend. Therefore there is no enough evidence to indicate that China's real estate market has entered an overall downward trend.