[1]王 帅,滕玉成.基于Logistic模型的县域城镇化率及其推进预测 ——以济南市平阴县为例[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(社会科学版),2014,33(06):32-38.
　WANG Shuai,TENG Yu-cheng.A Study on the County Urbanization Rate and Its Development Prediction Based on Logistic Model A case of Pingyin county of Jinan city[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Social Science Edition),2014,33(06):32-38.
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基于Logistic模型的县域城镇化率及其推进预测 ——以济南市平阴县为例()
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西安建筑科技大学学报（社会科学版）[ISSN:1008-7192/CN:61-1330/C]

卷:
33
期数:
2014年06期
页码:
32-38
栏目:
经济与管理
出版日期:
2014-12-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
A Study on the County Urbanization Rate and Its Development Prediction Based on Logistic Model A case of Pingyin county of Jinan city
文章编号:
1008-7192(2014)06-0032-05
作者:
王 帅; 滕玉成
山东大学，山东 济南 250100
Author(s):
WANG Shuai; TENG Yu-cheng
(Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China)
关键词:
Logistic模型; 平阴县; 城镇化率; 预测
Keywords:
Logistic model;  Pingyin County;  urbanization rate;  predict
分类号:
F 207
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
我国把加快发展中小城市作为当前优化城镇规模结构的主攻方向，以此为背景，县域城镇化在国家城镇化战略框架中的重要性进一步凸显。为推动县域城镇化的科学发展，以济南市平阴县为例，利用SPSS统计分析软件进行Logistic模型曲线估计的操作，得出城镇化率预测值，并通过纵向（与全国、省、市）及横向（与周边县市）间的比较，为平阴县找准城镇化发展定位，进而确定合理的城镇化增速。从而在当前和未来两个层面上探讨了平阴县城镇化率的发展态势，亦希望能够为县域城镇化发展提供一种科学的衡量手段和预测路径。
Abstract:
China has taken it as the main direction of the current optimization of urban scale and structure to speed up the development of small and medium-sized cities. Accordingly, the scientific development of county urbanization becomes more and more important in the strategy framework of China’s urbanization. Based on the parameter estimation of Logistic curve model of SPSS, the paper concludes the predictive value of urbanization rate of Pingyin county of Jinan city. With both the vertical (of cities of China) and lateral (of neighboring cities) comparison, the paper defines the orientation of urbanization development of Pingyin County, and determines the reasonable growth of its urbanization. It also discusses the development trend of Pingyin’s urbanization rate now and future to provide a scientific measure and predictive path for the development of county urbanization

参考文献/References:

[1] 国家新型城镇化规划 (2014-2020) [EB/OL]. 新华网 . (2014-03-17). http://news.xinhuanet.com/house/wuxi/2014-03-17. [2] 山东省建设厅 . 山东省统计局 . 山东省城镇化发展报告 (2012)[M]. 济南 : 黄河出版社 ,2012:192, 207-208. [3] 唐桂敏 . 山东省县域经济发展研究 [D]. 济南 : 山东师范大学学位论文 ,2013:22-23. [4] 简新华 , 黄锟 . 中国城镇化水平和速度的实证分析与前景预测 [J]. 经济研究 , 2010(3):30.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2014-09-12作者简介:王 帅（1988-），男，河南商丘人，山东大学政治学与公共管理学院硕士研究生，研究方向为城市管理与区域治理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2015-09-04