[1]刘鹏凌,吴文俊,万莹莹,等.粮食产量的影响因素分析及灰色预测——基于安徽省主产区的数据[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(社会科学版),2019,38(04):58-63.[doi:10.15986/j.1008-7192.2019.04.009 ]
　LIU Peng-ling,WU Wen-jun,WAN Ying-ying,et al.An Analysis of the Influencing factors and the Grey Prediction of Grain Yield——Based on the data of main production areas in Anhui Province[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Social Science Edition),2019,38(04):58-63.[doi:10.15986/j.1008-7192.2019.04.009 ]
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粮食产量的影响因素分析及灰色预测——基于安徽省主产区的数据()
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西安建筑科技大学学报（社会科学版）[ISSN:1008-7192/CN:61-1330/C]

卷:
38
期数:
2019年04期
页码:
58-63
栏目:
经济与管理
出版日期:
2019-09-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
An Analysis of the Influencing factors and the Grey Prediction of Grain Yield——Based on the data of main production areas in Anhui Province
作者:
刘鹏凌1; 吴文俊1; 万莹莹1; 万光辉2
(1.安徽农业大学 经济管理学院,安徽 合肥 230036; 2.南京林业大学 理学院,江苏 南京 210037)
Author(s):
LIU Peng-ling1;  WU Wen-jun1;  WAN Ying-ying1; WAN Guang-hui2
(1.College of Economics and Management, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China;2. College of Science, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China)
关键词:
粮食产量;  影响因素;  主成分;  GM(1; 1)灰色模型
Keywords:
grain yield;  influence factors;  principal components;  grey model GM(1; 1)
分类号:
F327
DOI:
10.15986/j.1008-7192.2019.04.009
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
抓住影响粮食产量的主要因素并科学预测粮食产量,对于提高粮食产量和保障粮食安全至关重要。选取安徽省三大农产品主产区2000—2017年的粮食产量等数据,对影响粮食产量的因素进行主成分分析,并采用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测安徽省主产区未来八年的粮食产量。结果表明:1.安徽省主产区粮食产量在过去18年总体增长,但农业的弱质性影响依然严重; 2.影响粮食产量的因素按程度由大到小排列依次为:技术要素、资源投入要素、市场要素; 3.通过预测粮食产量未来八年呈增长趋势,但边际产量递减。因此,建议加强农业基础设施建设降低农业弱质性,合理配置要素资源,强化政策扶持和引导,促进适度规模形成。
Abstract:
It is very important to make out the main factors affecting grain production and predict the grain production scientifically for the grain production growth and the food security guarantee. By means of the grey perdition model GM(1,1), the paper extracts the data relevant to the grain yield in three major agricultural production areas of Anhui province from 2000 to 2017, makes a principal component analysis on the factors affecting grain production, and predicts the grain production in the next eight years in the main production areas of Anhui. The study shows that: 1)there is an overall growth of the grain output in the main producing areas of Anhui Province in the past 18 years, though the agricultural inferiority is still serious; 2)in addition, factors affecting grain output rank from big to small in order, namely, the technical factors, the resource investment factors and the market factors; 3)there is an increasing trend of grain output in the next eight years, while the marginal yield decreases. Therefore, it is vital to strengthen the construction of agricultural infrastructure to reduce the weakness of agriculture, allocate essential resources rationally, provide policy support and guidance, and promote the formation of a moderate scale.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018- 12- 26
基金项目:安徽省哲学社科规划重点研究课题“安徽农产品主产区小农户与现代农业发展有机衔接路径及政策引导”(AHSKZ2018D02); 安徽省人文社科重点研究课题“乡村振兴战略视阈下农业生产者行为特征及影响因素——以安徽省为例”(SK2018A0132)
作者简介:刘鹏凌(1971-),男,安徽农业大学经济管理学院副教授,博士,硕士生导师,研究方向为农业、产业经济理论和政策; 吴文俊(1992-),男,安徽农业大学经济管理学院硕士研究生,研究方向为产
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-09-10