DOI: 10.15986/j.1008-7192.2019.06.008
水泥等基建关联产业发展和产能合作是支撑基础设施互联互通和落实“一带一路”倡议的重要内容。基于弹性估计和情境模拟方法首次测算了截至2028年18个主要“一带一路”沿线国的水泥产能合作潜力。研究发现,俄罗斯、越南、马来西亚和哈萨克斯坦均有500万吨以上的水泥产能合作潜力,研究期末越南和马来西亚分别达到2 800万吨和1 100万吨的合作潜力水平; 格鲁吉亚、罗马尼亚、巴基斯坦、波兰和捷克到研究期末有约100～350万吨的合作潜力,但巴基斯坦要到2024年方有正向的产能合作潜力; 白俄罗斯、土耳其、克罗地亚和斯洛伐克等国产能合作潜力为负,土耳其和立陶宛仅在研究期末其合作潜力方可能为正; 18个主要沿线国的水泥产能合作潜力总量从2019年的平均1 904.49万吨上升至2023年和2028年的6 014.58万吨和7 255.74万吨。
The development of infrastructure related industries like cement and the cooperation of their production capacity are critical to support the infrastructure interconnectivity and implement the important content in the OBOR(One Belt and One Road)Initiative. By means of elasticity estimates and scenario simulation, this paper predicts the cooperation potential of cement production capacity by 2028 in 18 major OBOR countries..The findings show that: each of Russia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Kazakhstan has got over 5 million tons of cooperation potential for cement production capacity, and by the end of the research period, that of Vietnam and Malaysia would reach to the level of 28 million tons and 11 million tons respectively. Georgia, Romania, Pakistan, Poland and the Czech Republic have got about 1-3.5 million tons of potential for cooperation each by the end of the research period, and Pakistan will not have a positive cooperation potential for production capacity until 2024. Though the cooperation potential for production capacity among Belarus, Turkey, Croatia and Slovakia is negative, that of Turkey and Lithuania may turn to positive at the end of the period. The total cooperative potential for cement production capacity in 18 major countries along the road increases from an average of 19.044 9 million tons in 2019 to 60.1 458 million tons in 2023 and 72.557 4 million tons in 2028.
